One of benefits I have enjoyed from writing these weekly updates on our pandemic experience is the feedback I receive from readers.
Like all of us, I see the real-time events before us through the lens of my
own experience. On many occasions, feedback from readers – praise and
criticism, agreement and discordance – has helped me reshape my lens and
hopefully broaden my perspective. I have learned elements of this crisis has
been a universally shared experience. However, often the impact has been
intensely personal and unique to individual circumstances.
Two bits of feedback this week helped to shift my thinking. The first was
from a friend who sent me a splash page screenshot of a major national news
outlet with side-by-side links to two stories. The first, an interview with Dr.
Rochelle Walensky:
CDC
chief warns U.S. headed for 'impending doom' as Covid cases rise again: 'Right
now I'm scared.' The second, adjacent interview, was from former FDA
director Dr. Scott Gottlieb: U.S.
COVID vaccinations at 'tipping point' of helping turn the tide in pandemic.
A few weeks ago, I wrote a piece on how
to pick your pundit. Walensky and Gottlieb clearly check all the boxes as
credible sources of information – truly accomplished leaders in their fields,
interviewed by a hard news outlet. Although the full interviews were more
nuanced than the headlines, the overall tone and messaging could not have been
more different. Is it any wonder the lay general public has difficulty knowing
what to think?
The second message I received this week was not from a lay person, but a
highly educated and scientifically sophisticated Baylor faculty member, in
response to last week's message: Back
to Normal? As I wrote this, the vision of normal I carried in my head was
the elimination of masking and distancing requirements in the workplace,
relaxation of travel restrictions and return to non-distanced dining and
entertainment. My conclusion was that now is not the time to make major
return-to-normal steps, but we will likely get there soon – I think by this
summer. In response to that e-mail, our faculty member wrote to me the
following:
"… I am writing you as the mother of two young children who will not
have access to vaccine anytime in the near future. I am curious what message
you would share with those of us with young kids … yes, the vaccine is becoming
more widely available to adults, and hopefully we will see widespread community
vaccination. However, our children still remain at risk. While the morbidity
and mortality in pediatrics has not been close to what we see in the adult
population, disease in children is certainly not without consequence."
This is an important question, and to be honest, when I was writing about
"return to normal" – through my
grown-children-and-preschool-grandchildren frame of reference – one I did not
consider. This week I would like to remedy this by reflecting on the timing of
return to normal for children. When should you return to a normal classroom
environment, if it is available? What about extracurricular activities? Social
events? Sleepovers? Going out for family Sunday brunch?
Unfortunately, if you are looking for a credible authority figure to blow
the "all clear" whistle to resume our normal lives, you will be
waiting a very long time. The decision to ease back into normalcy for children
will be made by parents and based on balancing the benefits of resuming normal
activities against the risk of becoming seriously ill.
First, I think it is important to think deeply about the benefits of
resuming activities for your child, as every situation is different. Is your
child thriving in the virtual learning environment or – as many are –
struggling? What teacher-mentorship relationships have been lost in virtual
learning? What is the impact of sustained restrictions on their mental health
and well-being? How concerned are you about lack of socialization and
development? How important are extracurriculars to your child? What major
social milestones are they missing (e.g., dances, proms, senior year events).
In caring for a child at home, how disruptive has this been to your family's
ability to go to work and earn a living? It is very important to acknowledge
these are critical, non-trivial questions that will have different answers for
every child and family and must be included in any risk-benefit analysis.
Second, the risk to children is far, far lower than in adults, but it is not
zero. Children, particularly young children, are less likely to become
infected, less likely to be symptomatic if infected, and far less likely to
develop severe symptoms. Spend some time studying the following chart that
stratifies new cases and deaths by age: COVID-19
Weekly Cases and Deaths per 100,000 Population by Age, Race/Ethnicity, and Sex.
Week to week, the rate of new cases and deaths in children on a per 100,000
population basis, carried out to two decimal places, often rounds to zero. To
be sure, it is not zero. Children do develop severe COVID-19 infections, they
can become critically ill and they can have severe outcomes. There are
currently children in Houston area ICUs due to COVID-19 infections. As children
reach their teen years, their risk steadily increases until it reaches young
adult levels. On a statistical basis it is highly unlikely that your child will
become critically ill. As a parent, I know every time your child walks out the door
you think about all the terrible things that might happen – accidents, acts of
violence. Thankfully, they rarely happen, but you do accept that risk as a
necessary part of living in the world.
Third, we are still in a relatively high-prevalence viral environment. After
a few weeks of decline, we have actually seen the national new case rate move
up, largely driven by states in the northeast. In Houston, our
daily case rate is in a month-long plateau, while hospitalizations continue
to drift downward, likely due to our success in vaccinating people
at-risk. The test
positivity rate for Harris County is 8.6%. In a truly low prevalence
environment, when we are at or approaching herd immunity, we should see new
case rates drop sharply. Case positivity rates should drop well below 5%. You
will start to see news stories about hospitals discharging their last COVID-19
patient. We are not yet in a low prevalence environment.
Fourth, when will your child be able to get vaccinated? Currently you can
receive the Pfizer vaccine if you are 16 or older, Moderna at 18 or above.
Clinical trials are underway in children and adolescents for all the available
vaccines, and Pfizer
just announced (via press release, not peer-reviewed publication) that
their initial results in adolescents show the vaccine is highly effective. It
may be possible we have an adolescent vaccine by the fall, but we will not see
broad availability of child and adolescent vaccines until sometime in 2022.
In light of the above (continuing to hunker down has real cost, COVID-19
risk to children is very low but not zero, we remain in a relatively high
prevalence state, and we do not currently have a vaccine for children), how do
you make a decision as a parent?
Let us first acknowledge that this is hard, and a decision no parent wants
to be forced to make. Parents should not feel guilt about making the wrong
decision, as I honestly do not think there is a right or wrong answer at this
point. The reality is the overwhelming majority of children and adolescents
will come through the pandemic and be fine.
This analogy will be lost on many younger than me, but I remember going with
my dad to buy tools at Sears. If we needed a hammer, we could choose between
"good, better and best." The good version was perfectly serviceable,
the best was $10 more expensive with a titanium re-enforced handle. No wrong
choice. In terms of making a decision about your children, I think it we should
consider "safe, safer and safest."
Safe
Start to relax restrictions on your child's activities. Based on the fact they
are statistically less likely to develop severe illness, do not overly obsess
on micromanaging the safety and design of every place they will be. Continue to
encourage masking and distancing, as we all should at this point. Emphasize
with them the importance of personal responsibility. In the current environment
this is not a wrong decision. In my own personal risk-benefit analysis – as I
look at my grandchildren – for me it is a little aggressive.
Safer
Actively promote a cautious return to activities (school, extracurriculars,
community activities, social activities). Spend some time with your child
listing the activities they need to resume and develop a means of
prioritization. Return to face-to-face school and childcare seems to be high on
the list. How important are after school activities? Sports? Face-to-face
contact with friends?
Once you have your list, spend some time thinking about the safe design of
the environment. Is there evidence that they (school, daycare, coach, family
down the street) are taking the pandemic seriously, and putting reasonable
safety measures in place? Has all the adult staff been vaccinated? Gradually
reintroduce activities. This is where I land today in my personal
decision-making process.
Safest
Continue to restrict activities and face-to-face interactions until we reach a
low prevalence environment, and vaccines are available for children. This is
clearly the safest option to prevent infection with COVID-19, but comes with
significant, real cost. The titanium-handled hammer may be the
"best," but there is a limit to what I am willing to pay. For most
parents, I suspect the prospect of an additional six months or more of tightly
restricted activity will be unstainable and come at an unacceptable price.
I truly wish this was a simpler process, but few things in the past year
have been simple. Parents have been unsung heroes through the pandemic, working
to preserve and protect the next generation. We owe you all a profound debt of
gratitude.
(Note: Between June 2020 through November 2021, I
wrote weekly COVID-19 pandemic updates seen through the lens of a health
sciences university. My intent was to
provide reliable information, acknowledge legitimate concerns, console, and
encourage. Each posting reflects issues
our community was experiencing at that moment in time. I have reproduced selected examples on this
site).